Week 12 began with three Thanksgiving games, and now we have our first NFL Black Friday game before Sunday's main course. The New York Jets will host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East showdown. Let's take a look at the betting perspective of this matchup. The Dolphins are heavy favorites with a spread of -9.5. Can the Jets stay within the number? Betting and fantasy analysts Aaron Schatz, Seth Walder, Eric Moody, and Anita Marks share their thoughts.
Moody believes that with Tim Boyle as the Jets' new starting quarterback, the Dolphins will cover the spread. The Jets have lost three consecutive games and have averaged a measly 8.0 points per game during that stretch. As an AFC East game, the Dolphins will be motivated to win. They lead the league in total yards and points scored per game, making it likely that they will put up points against the Jets defense. Additionally, Miami has covered eight of its past 10 games against the Jets.
Walder points out that Boyle's career NFL QBR is 29, which is surprisingly higher than his college QBR of 16. He believes that the Jets should have benched Zach Wilson earlier and that Boyle is unlikely to lead the Jets' offense to scoring points. Therefore, Walder chooses the Dolphins to cover the spread.
Moving on to player props, Schatz suggests betting the over on Tyreek Hill's receiving yards. Despite facing strong cornerbacks, Hill has gone over his yardage total in seven out of 10 games this season. Schatz's projections indicate that Hill is likely to surpass his yardage total 73% of the time.
When it comes to Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson's yardage props, Schatz believes that Jalen Ramsey will limit Wilson's production. With no other significant receiving threats on the Jets, Schatz chooses the under on Wilson's yardage total.
Walder's favorite prop in this game is Bradley Chubb recording over 0.5 sacks. Considering Boyle's vulnerability to sacks, Walder's model suggests that Chubb has a 58% chance of surpassing this mark. Chubb currently ranks third in pass rush win rate at edge this season.
Moody's prop bet is Boyle throwing over 1.5 interceptions. In Boyle's three career starts, he has averaged 31.3 pass attempts and 175.3 passing yards, while throwing six interceptions. Moody believes that Boyle won't be able to rely on the Jets' running game against the Dolphins, who have the highest points scored per game in the league.
Walder also suggests betting on Chubb recording over 3.5 tackles + assists. Despite the Jets being heavy underdogs, Walder anticipates a run-first game plan to protect Boyle. His tackle model already leans towards Chubb surpassing this mark.
Marks agrees with Moody's prop bet on Boyle throwing over 1.5 interceptions. She highlights the improvement of the Dolphins defense and the presence of Jalen Ramsey, who has three interceptions in his last three games. Marks believes that the Jets' decision to move on from Wilson indicates that Boyle may not perform any better.
In conclusion, the Jets face an uphill battle against the Dolphins, who are favored by a significant margin. The analysts agree that the Dolphins are likely to cover the spread, and they provide various prop bets to consider for this game.