The Road to Super Bowl LVIII: NFL Playoff Picture
With just over six weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL regular season, the focus is already shifting towards the 14-team playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LVIII. The Philadelphia Eagles’ victories over the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have solidified their position as the favorites to secure the 1-seed in the NFC. However, the battle for the 1-seed in the AFC is much more competitive, with the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, and Jacksonville Jaguars all vying for a first-round bye. So, which teams have a chance to make it to the wild-card round, and whose hopes are fading away? To answer these questions, we turn to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which provides projections for the rest of the season, playoff scenarios, and odds for teams to make the postseason, clinch their divisions, and even reach the Super Bowl. Additionally, we have seeding projections for both the AFC and NFC, giving us a glimpse of the potential matchups in each conference. Lastly, we take an early look at the teams in contention for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Let’s dive into the details:
AFC Playoff Picture
FPI predicts clear favorites in all four divisions, with the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cincinnati Bengals facing an uphill battle after losses in Week 12. The Kansas City Chiefs, with an 8-3 record, are on track to secure the 1-seed, granting them a bye until the divisional round. In the wild-card round, the 2-seed will host the 7-seed, the 3-seed will host the 6-seed, and the 4-seed will host the 5-seed.
NFC Playoff Picture
The NFC has three divisions that are nearly locked up, although the race for the NFC South between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints remains tight, with both teams having a 42% chance to win the division, according to FPI. The Philadelphia Eagles, with a dominant 10-1 record, are in prime position to secure the 1-seed and enjoy a bye until the divisional round. Similar to the AFC, the wild-card race in the NFC is wide open, with the 6th and 7th seeds up for grabs. However, the Dallas Cowboys are likely to secure the 5-seed, as catching up to the Eagles in the East seems unlikely.
Week 12 Game of Note
The Chicago Bears have the opportunity to crush the Minnesota Vikings’ hopes of winning the NFC North in their Monday night matchup.
Race for the 2024 No. 1 Pick
Looking ahead to the 2024 NFL draft, two quarterbacks, Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina), are projected to be the top-ranked prospects. The Chicago Bears, with a 3-8 record, currently hold the 1-10 Carolina Panthers’ first-round pick, which has a 67% chance of landing at No. 1, according to FPI. Additionally, the Bears have a 2% chance of securing the No. 1 pick with their own selection. The Arizona Cardinals, with a 2-10 record, possess two first-round picks, with FPI projecting their original pick at No. 2 and the Houston Texans’ pick, acquired in a trade last April, at No. 21.
NFL Playoff Schedule
Week 18 games will take place on January 7, marking the start of the postseason. The schedule for each round of games is as follows:
- January 13-15: Wild-card round
- January 20-21: Divisional round
- January 28: AFC and NFC Championship Games
- February 11: Super Bowl LVIII (to be held in Las Vegas)